Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 9.391502e-05 0.000112 0.000131 0.000153 0.000176 0.000202 0.000230
2024-10-06 7.364415e-05 0.000098 0.000125 0.000158 0.000196 0.000238 0.000287
2024-10-13 5.938588e-05 0.000086 0.000117 0.000155 0.000201 0.000253 0.000315
2024-10-20 4.706326e-05 0.000075 0.000109 0.000153 0.000207 0.000269 0.000346
2024-10-27 4.132140e-05 0.000070 0.000107 0.000157 0.000218 0.000291 0.000381
2024-11-03 3.262227e-05 0.000061 0.000099 0.000152 0.000219 0.000300 0.000402
2024-11-10 2.764371e-05 0.000056 0.000096 0.000152 0.000225 0.000314 0.000428
2024-11-17 2.211082e-05 0.000050 0.000090 0.000148 0.000226 0.000323 0.000448
2024-11-24 1.953455e-05 0.000047 0.000089 0.000152 0.000236 0.000342 0.000479
2024-12-01 1.639693e-05 0.000043 0.000086 0.000152 0.000242 0.000355 0.000505
2024-12-08 1.273469e-05 0.000038 0.000081 0.000147 0.000240 0.000359 0.000518
2024-12-15 1.043173e-05 0.000035 0.000078 0.000146 0.000244 0.000371 0.000540
2024-12-22 8.022893e-06 0.000031 0.000074 0.000144 0.000247 0.000382 0.000564
2024-12-29 6.676491e-06 0.000029 0.000073 0.000148 0.000257 0.000403 0.000600
2025-01-05 5.098994e-06 0.000026 0.000070 0.000147 0.000261 0.000415 0.000626
2025-01-12 3.486526e-06 0.000023 0.000066 0.000143 0.000261 0.000421 0.000643
2025-01-19 2.987968e-06 0.000022 0.000066 0.000148 0.000273 0.000444 0.000683
2025-01-26 1.814380e-06 0.000019 0.000061 0.000142 0.000270 0.000447 0.000695
2025-02-02 1.302097e-06 0.000017 0.000060 0.000143 0.000276 0.000461 0.000723
2025-02-09 7.194042e-07 0.000015 0.000056 0.000139 0.000275 0.000466 0.000738
2025-02-16 5.393387e-07 0.000014 0.000056 0.000143 0.000285 0.000487 0.000774
2025-02-23 3.075099e-07 0.000013 0.000054 0.000142 0.000289 0.000499 0.000800
2025-03-02 1.039090e-07 0.000011 0.000050 0.000138 0.000286 0.000501 0.000812